Gower Street Revises 2024 Global Box Office Estimate Ahead Of CinemaCon

Gower Street Analytics 2024 Global Box Office Forecast - April 2024
London ( April 7, 2024 ) -

Gower Street Analytics has revised its 2024 global box office projection to $32.3 billion. The announcement comes as the global industry gathers in Las Vegas for CinemaCon, the official convention of The National Association of Theatre Owners (NATO), which runs April 8-11.

The revision is a marginal increase on the Gower Street’s original projection of $31.5 billion published in December 2023. It is notable however that the increase would have been greater were it not for exchange rate changes between December and now essentially wiping out over a third of the gains seen collectively across International markets.

A $32.3 billion Global box office in 2024 would represent an approximate 5% decrease year-on-year (a 3% decrease at current exchange rates) from 2023. The 2024 revised estimate is – 18% behind an average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019).

Actuals for Q1 were 1% ahead of our projections in the Domestic market and in China. For the International market (exc. China) they were 11% ahead of our estimates. There have also been a number of changes to the 2024 release calendar since our first projection was announced in December and overall gains in our estimate can primarily be attributed to titles that have been added to the release calendar.

Overall our projection has seen only modest gains of approximately $200 million in the Domestic market, $550 million (in US$ terms) in the International market (exc. China), and remained relatively static for China. China is the only one of the three key markets projected to see a year-on-year improvement.

This projection, calculated utilizing data from Gower Street’s flagship FORECAST service and analyst assessment, is based on the current release calendar.

Please note: Figures shown in the stacked bar graph show US$ figures at historical exchange rates for years prior to 2024 and at current exchange rates for the Forecast year (2024). Figures for 2023 currently remain based on Gower Street’s January estimate of final results but will be updated, if necessary, from actuals reported in the MPA Theme Report when available. Percentage comparisons for 2024 against pre-pandemic years in the text are based on like-for-like local currency numbers converted at current exchange rates for greater accuracy.

About Gower Street Analytics Ltd.
Gower Street Analytics is the global leader in theatrical predictive analytics. Founded in 2015 and partnered with Comscore, Gower Street enables the film industry to best utilize global theatrical market data to maximize business potential through its proprietary FORECAST box office simulation platform, currently covering over 85 markets. In 2023 Gower Street launched its groundbreaking WKND and FFWD reports looking at Global, regional and market projections for the weekend ahead and key title projections for the upcoming 18 months, respectively.