Gower Street Analytics has raised its end of year estimate for global box office in 2021. The estimate has been revised up to $21.6 billion, from a previous estimate of $20.2 billion. Further they anticipate a potential additional upside that could see the current year finish around $22 billion globally. The $21.6 billion estimate would put 2021 80% ahead of 2020, but still 49% behind 2019’s record global tally.
When compared to 2020 actuals, there is a clear gain in Asia Pacific (APAC), mainly to the detriment of Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA). The market share of global box office represented by the Domestic (21.6%) and Latin American (4.6%) regions is expected to remain relatively unchanged between 2020 and 2021. In contrast, APAC is expected to expand its market share from just over 50% in 2020 to 52.2% in 2021. EMEA drops from 23.1% to 21.6%.
This APAC gain is entirely due to China, which has made further encroachment within the APAC region, with a reduced market share of worldwide box office in the region’s other key markets: Japan, South Korea, and Australia. China is expected to represent nearly 34% of the global box office in 2021, compared to 28% in 2020.
The $1.4 billion gain to the global prediction since our previous estimate, which was based on 8 months of actuals and estimates for the final four months of the year, is primarily due to the blockbuster boost brought about by October. The combined successes of China’s Golden Week holiday, led by “The Battle of Lake Changjin;” James Bond title “No Time To Die;” and Marvel anti-hero sequel “Venom: Letter There Be Carnage,” ramped up cinema-going around the world.
Overall, our global estimate for October has risen nearly 30% from an original estimate of $2.5 billion to $3.2 billion. This would put October business just 4% behind the average of the three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019) for the month. No previous month in 2021 has performed better than 40% behind the three-year average. A significant portion of that gain came from China, which is predicted to gross 41% ahead of the three-year average for October having tracked well below the three-year average for the previous four months.
Gower Street’s year-end calculation combines global box office actuals, provided by our partners at Comscore Movies, with monthly forward-projections by market based on our predictive box office service Forecast and analyst assessment. All projection figures are based on the current release calendar.
About Gower Street Analytics Ltd
Gower Street Analytics is a leading global film tech company founded in 2015. Partnered with Comscore, Gower Street enables the film industry to best utilize global theatrical market data to maximize business potential through its proprietary Forecast system.