Gower Street Analytics has reviewed and revised its 2026 Global box office projection to $34.7 billion.
The announcement comes as the global industry gathers in Las Vegas for CinemaCon, the official convention of Cinema United, which runs April 13-16.
The revision is a marginal decrease on Gower Street’s original 2026 projection of $35.0 billion published in December 2025. However, Gower Street has increased it’s estimate for the International market (excluding China). The decrease in the overall Global number is, largely, the result of a disappointing New Year period and Q1 in China.
A $34.7 billion Global box office in 2026 would represent an approximate +3% increase year on-year (a +4% increase at current exchange rates) from 2025, and a strong +16% increase from 2024 (+10% at current exchange rates). The 2026 revised estimate is -13% behind an average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019) at current exchange rates.
The estimate now combines Q1 actuals with estimates, calculated utilizing data from Gower Street’s flagship FORECAST service and analyst assessment, based on the current release calendar.
The estimate for the Domestic market has been revised down slightly from $9.9 billion to $9.75 billion. Q1 performed within our expected range but the holdover business coming into the year from 2025 holiday season releases was not as strong as anticipated. This resulted in the modest reduction to our full-year figures in this market. A $9.75 billion 2026 result would still represent a +10% increase on 2025 and an +11% increase on 2024. However, it was represent a -15% deficit against the average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017- 2019).
The projection for the International market (excluding China) sees an increase of approximately $350 million, from $18.03 billion to $18.38 billion. This has largely been driven by multiple local break-out titles around the world in Q1 addressing any shortfall that might have been seen from a few underperforming global releases or weaker holdover business. These include, but are not limited to, “The King’s Warden” in South Korea, “Sunshine Women’s Choir” in Taiwan, “Torrente, Presidente” in Spain, and December-holdover “Buen Camino” in Italy. The new $18.38 billion projection represents a +6% increase on 2025 (+8% at current exchange rates); a +19% increase against 2024 (+11% increase at current exchange rates); and is just -9% behind an average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019) at current exchange rates.
China’s projection has been revised down by approximately $550 million from $7.1 billion to $6.55 billion due to the disappointing Chinese New Year (CNY) performance. The lucrative window was not anticipated to match the record-breaking CNY period in 2025, when “Ne Zha 2” dominated, but the holiday week generated the weakest result of any post-pandemic year, which was not anticipated. The revised $6.55 billion projection would represent an -11% decrease year-on-year (-12% at current exchange rates); a +12% increase against 2024 (+6% at current exchange rates); but shows a significant gap of -22% against the average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019) at current exchange rates.
More information on how different factors have been and are driving cinema business results across the past year in major markets can be found in Gower Street’s new DRIVERS report (available to Gower Street clients). The DRIVERS report, which updates daily, looks at the impact of admissions, ticket price fluctuations, and exchange rates Globally and by market.
Please note: Figures shown in the stacked bar graph show US$ figures at historical exchange rates for years prior to 2026 and at current exchange rates for the Forecast year (2026). Percentage comparisons for 2026 against pre-pandemic years in the text are based on like-for-like local currency numbers converted at current exchange rates for greater accuracy.
About Gower Street Analytics Ltd
Gower Street Analytics is the global leader in theatrical predictive analytics. Founded in 2015 and partnered with Comscore, Gower Street enables the film industry to best utilize global theatrical market data to maximize business potential through its proprietary FORECAST box office simulation platform, currently covering over 85 markets. In 2023 Gower Street launched its groundbreaking WKND and FFWD reports looking at Global, regional and market projections for the weekend ahead and key title projections for the upcoming 18 months, respectively. In 2025, Gower Street launched its monthly GBOT report, analyzing the latest global actuals. In 2026, Gower Street launched its DRIVERS report looking at the impact of key factors (Admissions, Ticket Pricing, Exchange Rates) on Global and individual market results.