8 May 2022
Can one film save cinema? The obvious answer is no. Yet this does not stop excessive expectations from being attached to specific titles on the post-COVID release schedule. The potential and/or actual performance of said title then triggers an outpouring of column-inches predicting that the cinema patient is in various stages of recovery or relapse. Until the next film release – rinse and repeat.
What everyone in the cinema industry fears is the big screen equivalent of Long COVID. Yes, audience numbers are down for pretty much every market (particularly so for Italy, see below), so it is an informed guessing game as to when we will return to 2019 box office levels. But since we can’t wait until 2024 or 2025 to be sure, we turn every significant premiere into tea leaves or tarot cards, telling us about the future, rather than just being a weekend’s worth of admissions and sales figures.
Already “No Time to Die” was a “return” to form, “Spider/Man: No Way Home” was an “outsize hit,” but “Downton Abbey: A New Era’ was not the hoped for installment success for the DA Cinematic Universe. Though “Everything Everywhere All At Once” proved that indie/mid-size/quirky/A24 movies still have a role to play on the big screen.
This weekend all eyes are naturally on “Doctor Strange: In the Multiverse of Madness.” But already those same eyes are looking distractedly beyond that to “Top Gun: Maverick” and whether it will “onramp” older audiences to blockbusters this summer, such as “Jurassic World Dominion.” Beyond that, all eyes are on “Avatar: The Way of Water” and whether those eyes will be wearing 3D glasses when the film opens in December.
Yet one film does not a trend make, as spring-prognosticating swallow watchers know. The reality is that the recovery will be stop-start, depending on the quality of the films, while being geographically uneven. Factors such as lifting of concessions restrictions (South Korea this past week), can impact cinema attendance more than the quality of the films on offer.
With China’s Zero Covid policy locked in, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine stalled and cost-of-living going up-up-up just about everywhere, there will be external factors that can have more of an impact on global box office than the Rotten Tomatoes score of “Maverick.” All we can do is work together as an industry to make sure that 2024 is the likelier date than 2025 or 2026 for us to celebrate like it’s 2019.
Patrick von Sychowski
, Editor, Celluloid Junkie
Movies
There is no question that the most buzz-worthy film to emerge from this year’s CinemaCon was Paramount’s “Top Gun: Maverick,” which was screened in its entirety to the assembled cinema operators in Las Vegas. The sequel to the 1986 Tom Cruise action spectacular earned plaudits from everyone from AMC chief Adam Aron to analysts revising their estimates upwards for the films potential opening weekend to nearly USD $100 million. The film had its premiere this Wednesday (4 May) in San Diego, before opening widely on 27 May.
More than any Marvel film or similar blockbuster, the hope is that nostalgia for the original will help usher over-45 audiences back to the multiplex. Cinema operators are calculating that “Maverick” (as the film is often abbreviated in industry/speak) will act as a “gateway drug for older audiences,” who have proven reluctant to return to cinemas regularly or even at all post-pandemic. The film would thus act as an “onramp” for them to come back for films such as “Jurassic World Dominion” this summer.
“There are people who dropped out. They went to the movies every week with the girls, or they went with their husband every Friday night. And then for two years, they started a different habit. They replaced it with something else. What it’s going to take is seeing that movie that compels them to go back.”
Megan Colligan, President of Imax Entertainment
Overall the mood at CinemaCon was considered very positive (see last week’s CJ Marquee), with several major titles previewed getting the collective thumbs up from the exhibitors in attendance. The optimism will be needed as this year is tracking to fall well short of the pre-pandemic global USD $11 billion annual domestic takings, with 30% fewer movies in the April to December frame and a particular dearth of mid-budget movies. Research by cinema data service Movio has also shown that older audiences who returned to the cinema for “No Time to Die” are far less likely to come back and see other films, as those that came back for smaller titles.
Studio heads and NATO chief John Fithian were united on stage in declaring that cinema was very much alive, while day-and-date streaming was over. But after CinemaCon had wrapped it was revealed Universal will be sending three of its films straight to its Peacock streaming service in 2023, skipping cinemas entirely. So while it was agreed that films perform better on SVoD services if they have had a previous theatrical run, there appears to be no return to the previous status quo, even with shorter release windows. But there is hope that “Top Gun: Maverick” will quiet down anxieties over older audiences and their unwillingness to flock to the big screen.
Source:
Los Angeles Times
Exhibitors
One week after CinemaCon feted the revival of the cinema business after two long pandemic-plagued years, one of the world’s biggest exhibitors affirmed the comeback wasn’t just trade show hype.
Cinemark, North America’s third largest cinema chain with locations throughout Central and South America, announced a 303% increase in first quarter revenue to $460.5 million compared with USD $114.4 million for the three months ended March 31, 2021. The Texas-based operator reported a USD $74 million loss for the quarter, far less than the USD $208.3 million loss for the same three months in 2021.
Cinemark earned admissions revenue of USD $235.8 million and concession revenue of USD $173.0 million as attendance reached 33.1 million patrons. The company’s average ticket price was USD $7.12, and concession revenues per patron was USD $5.23.
“Cinemark once again outpaced North American industry box office recovery by a significant 650 basis points when comparing first quarter 2022 against first quarter 2019. Similarly, our international admissions surpassed their corresponding industry results by 500 basis points,” Cinemark President and CEO Sean Gamble said in a statement. “Despite a challenging start to the quarter due to omicron-related shifts in film content, we delivered positive adjusted EBITDA, driven by our industry out-performance, strong concessions sales and stringent cost management.”
Source:
Celluloid Junkie
Concessions & Dining
French association Better Eating at the Cinema has announced its inaugural awards. The association announced the competition in November 2021, with the aim of rethinking food offerings in dark auditoriums. Winners were announced for six categories: Salty Prize, Sweet Prize, Drinking Prize, Frozen Prize, Jury’s Favourite and Best Hope Prize, with hundreds of entrants.
The culinary competition did not simply aim to promote healthier eating in cinemas that was not geared towards fatty and sweet foods. It sought to inspire candidates “to compete in ingenuity to concoct original, gourmet, good dishes for health and the planet, without harmful, creative and anti-waste additions.” Arranged in partnership with French audiovisual body CNC and the General Food Agency, candidates had to submit their recipes by 15 April. A jury of tasters, chaired by chef Chloé Charles, then evaluated the submissions.
The winners were:
- Salty Prize: popcorn with cider vinegar and seaweed from Breizh;
- Sweet Prize: puffed balls coated with chocolate from Elsy;
- Drinks Prize: blackcurrant juice “detox” iced infusion from Bienfaits;
- Frozen Prize: malt ice cream from Verger Perdu;
- Jury’s favourite: Kignon biscuits;
- Best Hope Prize: Onigiri from Nanigiri.
The winning recipes will be presented during the next conference of the AFCAE (French Association of Arthouse Cinemas) and then offered to all of its member cinemas in September. The association will continue its work of promoting a healthy and eco-responsible food offering. Next it will be extending its mission to include other cultural venues such as festivals.
Source:
CNC
Organizations
Plans have been put forward in Italy to lengthen the current 90-day theatrical release window. There had been worry from the local film industry about the slow pace audiences are returning to cinemas post-pandemic. The length of the new window has not yet been announced.
The plans were announced by the Minister of Culture at Rome’s presidential Quirinale Palace, just ahead of the David di Donatello Awards, a local film prize. In March, the window had been set to 90-days, but there is a feeling that this time frame has not helped persuade audiences to returns to cinemas. The two heads of Italy’s two largest film companies, Rai Cinema and Mediaset’s Medusa film division, published a joint statement in one of the country’s largest daily newspapers bemoaning that Italian have been slower to return to cinemas than audiences in other European countries. They urged the Italian state to intervene. They estimate losses this year to be around EUR €600 million (USD $633 million) from lost tickets and concession sales, compared to pre-pandemic.
The article calls for the window to be increased from 90-days to 180-days (six months). They also argued that tax rebates for films made for streaming platforms should be 30% instead of the same generous 40% that films made for theatrical release enjoy in Italy. Complicating the matter is that streamers such as Netflix have used the Venice Film Festival to launch many of their biggest prestige productions in the run-up to the awards season, while those same films are shunned by Cannes. Italy is not expected to go as far as France, where films have a 15-month window between cinema and streaming.
There has also been complaints from the industry about the extension of the mask and face covering requirement in cinemas being extended in Italy. The Italian Distributors’ organisation Associazione Nazionale Industrie Cinematografiche Audiovisive e Digitali (ANICA) says it could be the final nail in the coffin for the cinema sector. Italy is the only major European market where box office was down in 2021 compared to 2020. It was also overtaken by Saudi Arabia as the sixth biggest cinema market in the EMEA area that year.
Source:
Variety
Market Research
Advertising theatrical film releases on television is usually prohibited in France. The French government believes that allowing movies to air commercials and trailers on television will only benefit American studios at the expense of local and independent productions.
In August of 2020, with cinemas suffering financially due to the COVID pandemic, the government issued a decree which allowed certain business sectors, including the film industry, to place ads on television for 18-months. (The time frame was later extended through October of 2022).
Now a new study conducted by the the country’s TV advertising union, Syndicat National de la Publicité Télévisée (SNPTV), has found that 56% of respondents said seeing a commercial for a movie on TV made them want to see the film in cinemas. The figure is higher for those aged 25-44 years old (67%) and 45-44 years old (64%). Perhaps more importantly, 38% of those surveyed actually went to the cinema to see a film after seeing it advertised on TV, a figure which rises to 51% when only including 18-34 year olds. Read the full story on Celluloid Junkie.
Source:
Celluloid Junkie
Celluloid Junkie is the leading online resource dedicated to the global film and cinema business. The Marquee is our newsletter focused on motion picture exhibition; keeping industry professionals informed of important news, the latest trends and insightful analysis