Gower Street Analytics estimates 2025 Global box office will reach $33 billion.

This marks a bounce-back from the slight downturn experienced in 2024, with 2025 currently anticipated to finish approximately 8% ahead of the estimated full-year 2024 result (currently estimated at $30.5bn).

“2025 is set to be a strong year for the global box office, fuelled by robust studio slates and independent productions,” said Dimitrios Mitsinikos, CEO of Gower Street Analytics.

The 2025 Global projection would put the year -14% against the average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019) at historic exchange rates. It is also -3% behind 2023’s full-year result, though if re-calculated using current exchange rates the 2025 projection would sit 1% ahead of 2023.

For 2025 the Domestic (North American) market is projected to finish 9% up on 2024 (est.) at approximately $9.7 billion. This is -16% against the 2017-2019 average but +6% ahead of 2023.

“The Domestic market is anticipated to approach, and potentially surpass, the $10 billion mark, edging closer to pre-pandemic norms,” added Dimitrios Mitsinikos. “However, product availability is only part of the equation. A strengthening dollar may hinder international box office growth, compounded by evolving socio economic and political factors that have shaped the box office in recent years.”

The International market (excluding China) is predicted to finish 7% ahead of 2024 (est.) at approximately $16.8 billion. This is -12% against the 2017-2019 average and -2% against 2023 at historical exchange rates (though +4% when adjusted to current exchange rates). Within this the three key regions are estimated as follows:

• EMEA $9.1bn (-9% vs 2017-2019 ave; +6% vs 2024 est., +1% vs 2023)
• Asia Pacific (exc. China) $5.3bn (-18% vs 2017-2019 ave, +8% vs 2024 est., – 3% vs 2023)
• Latin America $2.4bn (-5% vs 2017-2019 ave, +7% vs 2024 est., -10% vs 2023)

“The 2025 release calendar has everything,” said Rob Mitchell, Director of Theatrical Insights at Gower Street. “There are expansions of multi-billion-dollar box office franchises “Avatar,”AVATAR, the Marvel Cinematic Universe, “Mission: Impossible,” Jurassic World,” “John Wick,” and the “Conuring” universe; the sequel to billion-dollar animated hit “Zootopia;” the launch of the new DC Universe with James Gunn’s “Superman;” the conclusion to current box office smash “Wicked;” multiple live action renditions of beloved family favourites from both Walt Disney and DreamWorks; and a host of other exciting original IP titles from visionary directors such as Bong Joon-ho, Osgood Perkins, Ryan Coogler, and Joseph Kosinski. There is huge potential for global breakouts even beyond our current projections.”

Increasingly less reliant on Hollywood product, China is conservatively estimated at $6.6 billion (+9% vs 2024 est.). However, due to the limited release calendar at this stage it remains the hardest market to predict.

Gower Street’s Chief Analyst Thomas Beranek, who led the work on the 2024 projection which utilizes data from Gower Street’s flagship FORECAST service based on the current release calendar alongside additional analyst assessment, expects greater growth to follow. “2025 will be a step forward. 2026 is expected to be the breakout year,” said Beranek. “The release calendar for 2026 is already filled with a high density of new offerings from huge franchises including ‘Avengers,’ ‘Spider-Man,’ ‘Super Mario Bros.,’ ‘Star Wars,’ Toy Story,’ ‘Shrek,’ ‘Ice Age,’ ‘Jumanji,’ ‘Moana,’ ‘Batman’ and a new Christopher Nolan, just to name a few.”

It should be noted that this is a very early prediction and Gower Street would expect to see further changes to the release calendar result in some fluctuation. There are also a number of Untitled studio releases currently dated which, as more becomes known about these titles, could impact projections. The projection can also not account for unexpected global events.

Gower Street released its initial 2024 full-year projection on December 19, 2023. At that time we predicted a full-year result in 2024 of $31.5 billion globally, made up of $8 billion from the Domestic market, $15.6 billion from the International market (excluding China), and $7.9 billion from China. The latest projections for 2024, including 11 months of reported actuals, are shown in the graph (above). Economic challenges faced in China resulted in the biggest differential between the original and current estimates.

Please note: Figures shown in the stacked bar graph show US$ figures at historical exchange rates for years prior to 2024 and at current exchange rates for Forecast years (2024-2025).

About Gower Street Analytics
Gower Street Analytics is the global leader in theatrical predictive analytics. Founded in 2015 and partnered with Comscore, Gower Street enables the film industry to best utilize global theatrical market data to maximize business potential through its proprietary FORECAST box office simulation platform, currently covering over 85 markets. In 2023 Gower Street launched its groundbreaking WKND and FFWD reports looking at Global, regional and market projections for the weekend ahead and key title projections for the upcoming 18 months, respectively.