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Can A Summer Blockbuster Season Have Too Many New Releases?

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16 May 2023

Programming Note: Last week’s CJ Marquee is coming to you a little late as members of the Celluloid Junkie team make their way to this year’s Cannes Film Festival, starting 16 May. As well, don’t forget we’ll be talking to studios and distributors from around the world on this week’s CJ Cinema Summit at 5:00 pm (London) / 9:00 am (Los Angeles).


By now anyone following the worldwide motion picture exhibition and distribution business is well aware that the tenor of the conversation about the future of the industry shifted dramatically after CinemaCon in April. Sure the number of attendees at the conference was back to pre-pandemic levels, manufacturers were announcing big deals again and “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” was busy breaking box office records, but what really helped shift everyone’s thinking was the studio presentations of their upcoming releases.

Gone were the doom and gloom discussions about a lack of new releases causing attendance to suffer, throttling the industry’s recovery. Instead, cinema operators forgave studios for their recent streaming sins and returned home with something they haven’t felt for a long time; overwhelming optimism.

You could see this in the confident statements being made by the CEOs of publicly listed exhibition companies during their earnings announcements in the weeks that followed. Each catalogued a long list of big budget movies that would soon be in theatres as reason to be bullish about their near-term fortunes. What you didn’t hear on those earnings calls was the anxious murmuring among exhibitors of all sizes about the logjam of new releases in June and July.

To be sure, cinema owners in no way want to return to the dearth of fresh titles they suffered during the pandemic, however they are looking at the release schedule for June, July and even August wondering whether some of the highly anticipated movies headed their way will cannibalize each other.

Starting 19 May, every week has a glut of new releases, often featuring highly anticipated titles. “Fast X,” the latest entry in the “Fast and Furious” franchise hits theatres first followed by the live action adaptation of “The Little Mermaid” on 26 May. At least those films are counter-programmed. But the following week the animated “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” arrives in cinemas on 2 June seven days ahead of “Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” and two weeks before Pixar’s “Elemental” and DC’s “The Flash.” Exhibitors went from having one animated family title open in four months to having three open within four weeks of each other. This is all before 30 June when “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” is certain to suck up most of the box office.

Less than two weeks later “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” comes along to shove Indy out of the way on 12 July and then nine days later “Barbie” squares off against Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer.” Again, counter-programming may work in the latter case. That might not be the case two weeks later when on 4 August, “The Meg 2: The Trench” tries to take a bite out of the opening weekend of “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem.” Those are only the action and family films. R-rated comedies such as “No Hard Feelings,” starring Jennifer Lawrence, and “Joyride” open two weeks apart as well.

And these are just the big English-language studio movies. It leaves out two dozen specialty films and doesn’t even consider local titles in international territories. There is a name for this kind of film release pattern (at least in the northern hemisphere); summer, also commonly referred to as the summer blockbuster season. Exhibitors are familiar with having to program their multiplexes during the crowded summer months, when at times they are even forced to turn down new releases in certain theatres for lack of space. They are indeed happy to once again have the problems associated with such cinematic abundance.

Yet these days there is a tinge of concern in cinema owners’ voices when mentioning their conundrum; not only for themselves, but mostly for distributors. While exhibitors definitely need to recover, they also want distributors to prosper after COVID so they can continue to supply them with new movies. In speaking with a number of exhibitors the fear seems to be that someone is going to get hurt this summer. That a blockbuster, or more than one, will be released and not perform in a crowded marketplace. That no title will have a decent second weekend, and if it does, it won’t have a third. That the weekly drops will be bigger than they need to be.

Though exhibitors are always making a concerted effort to get patrons to show up as often as possible, can they coax them into cinemas more than once in a month when competing with streaming options, outdoor activities and family vacations? Surely there are comparisons that could be run from previous summers, and major studios have likely already done them, though will they be accurate in a post-pandemic world?

Not wanting to present a problem without a potential solution, I thought of two which might help keep titles in theatres longer so they can fully realize their true earnings potential. These suggestions actually come from operational norms in various international territories. For operators with fewer screens in smaller markets distributors could reduce the minimum number of weeks and allow them to holdover a release with split showtimes. Such operators could program more titles this way and stray moviegoers can catch up on films for which they missed the initial release. Maybe a four week old film only screens once a day or three times in a week at different hours. I know of some exhibitors still holding packed screenings of “Avatar: The Way of Water” once a week under this kind of arrangement.

Taking this idea one step further, for films that are in the latter stages of release and would otherwise not be held over by cinema operators, it would be ideal if distributors allowed them to be played on a rotating basis with other aging releases, rather than mandating they be played “clean” on their own screen. Three films could be played on a single screen extending the theatrical life of each title while making room for new releases, possibly from the very same distributors whose older movies are now playing in rotation.

I realize some of this “screen sharing” already happens naturally, but it is in a distributor’s nature to reflexively demand as many showtimes per day for each of their titles, no matter how long ago they may have been released, as much as it is for an exhibitor to program their screens with titles that will attract the highest attendance. Maybe in times when there are too many releases to program on standalone screens, the goals of both exhibitors and distributors can be met by increasing attendance on a single screen by showing three different movies on it, earning additional box office for films that may have previously been forfeited.


Market Research

European Audiovisual Observatory - 2023 EU and UK Box Office

Box Office in EU and UK Grew by 70% in 2022, Short of Pre-Pandemic Average by 28%

While most COVID restrictions were lifted early on in the year, 2022 was still marked by many of the challenges observed during the preceding pandemic years, including hesitancy among audiences to return to cinemas, a lower number of releases from the United States, a weak summer slate and some remaining restrictions during the first half of the year in some countries. As a result, cinema attendance in the European Union and the United Kingdom increased by 63% from 403 million tickets sold in 2021 to an estimated 657 million in 2022, representing 67% of the average pre-pandemic admission level registered between 2017 and 2019.

Similarly, gross box office grew by 70% from EUR 2.99 billion (USD $3.3. billion) to an estimated EUR 5.07 billion (USD $5.5 billion), accounting for 72% of the average pre-pandemic box office level. Thanks to public crisis support, the number of cinema screens continued to remain comparatively stable at cumulative level, decreasing only by about 300 screens from 32 833 screens in 2019, to 32 526 screens operational in the EU and the UK in 2022.

While admissions increased in all EU member states and the UK, there were significant differences with regard to the year-on-year growth which ranged from a 241% increase in Latvia to a 19% increase in Poland. The same is true for recovery rates, where Denmark and the Czech Republic were the leading European markets with admissions reaching 82% and 81% of the pre-pandemic average respectively. At the other end of the spectrum, cinema attendance in Italy and Greece represented only 49% and 57% of their pre-pandemic averages.

European films performed well and market share for European films increased year-on-year from 26.8% to 28.4% in 2022.

Source: Celluloid Junkie


Cinemas

First Oma Cinema to Open in Mougin, France This Year

Unique cinema concept Oma Cinema will open its first installation in Mougin in the south of France later this year. The science fiction-inspired concept has seating pods “floating” in the centre of the cinema auditorium, similarly to opera boxes. Exhibitor CinéWest has stated that the cinema will open by Christmas this year, with CEO Daniel Taillandier providing some additional details about the world-first:

We are awaiting the delivery of the building by Altarea Cogedim to begin fitting-out work in mid-June, for approximately 6 months. The idea is to open before Christmas. There will be three rooms, an Oma room with 150 to 160 seats, and 2 other rooms with around 60 seats. In any case, we will be less than 300 seats because this is the commercial authorization capacity authorized for cinema by the CDACs.

CinéWest CEO Daniel Taillandier

Mougin currently has no cinema, with CinéWest operating the nearest cinema, La Strada cinema in nearby Mouans-Sartoux. The Mougin cinema will be managed as an extension of La Strade, as if the two “were a single site.” The programming will enable more films to be screened or for the same film to be offered in more than one type of setting. La Strada was recently also refurbished with new sound and image systems, seats, screen, carpet, exterior panels, hall, etc.

Source: Nice Matin


Exhibitors

Cineplex Loss Declines In First Quarter As Attendance Rises

Things are looking up for Cineplex. Just a week after AMC and Cinemark reported improved earnings for the first quarter of 2023, Canada’s largest movie theatre chain joined the club of exhibitors with positive financial news. A 46% increase in attendance helped box office revenue grow by 54.3% to CAD $123.3 million (USD $91.6 million) as food and beverage sales grew 47.1% to CAD $86.4 million (USD $64.2 million).

Total revenues increased 49% to $341.0 million compared to the first quarter of 2022
as the net loss improved to CAD $30.2 million (USD $22.11million) compared to a net loss of CAD $42.2 million (USD $30.90 million) in the first quarter of 2022. That amounts to a CAD $0.48 (USD $0.35) loss per share which beats the $0.67 (USD $0.49) per share loss from 2022, a nearly 29% year-over-year improvement. At the same time, Cineplex reported their highest ever combined box office and theatre food service revenues for the month of April.

And before anyone asks, Cineplex did address the CAD $1.24 billion (USD $910 million) claim it was awarded by a Canadian court in their lawsuit against Cineworld over their latter’s abandoned 2020 acquisition. Because the restructuring plan in Cineworld’s ongoing bankruptcy only has a USD $10 million pool to settle all litigation, Cineplex isn’t anticipating receipt of any material payment, nor have the ever officially accounted for the claim in their financial statements.

Source: Celluloid Junkie


Cinemas

SIFF Purchases Seattle Cinerama Theater

SIFF announced its acquisition of the Seattle Cinerama Theater from the estate of Paul G. Allen. The announcement was made by SIFF Executive Director Tom Mara during the Opening Night celebration of the 49th Annual Seattle International Film Festival, which runs through 21 May. Terms of the sale were not disclosed.

“We are honored to take on stewardship of this historic theater. It’s a film venue adored by the community and speaks to the critical role SIFF plays in bringing the power and art of film to diverse audiences across our region,” said Mara. “So many of us have experienced the magic of this theater, and we are excited to carry on the vision and impact that Paul Allen started so many years ago.”

The venue first opened in 1963 to great fanfare but went into disrepair and by the late 1990s was in danger of being demolished. Investor and philanthropist Paul G. Allen purchased and restored the theater, creating an unmatched destination for blockbuster movies, independent film, and a variety of film festivals and events. The venue closed in 2020 and remained shuttered during the COVID-19 pandemic. Pursuant to Allen’s wishes, the Seattle Cinerama Theater was earmarked to be sold with all estate proceeds dedicated to philanthropy.

SIFF will reopen the theater later this year under a new name. It will become the fourth venue run by the nonprofit organization, alongside SIFF Film Center at Seattle Center, SIFF Cinema Uptown, and SIFF Cinema Egyptian—all of which offer experiences that bring people together to discover extraordinary films from around the world.

Source: Celluloid Junkie


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Celluloid Junkie is the leading online resource dedicated to the global film and cinema business. The Marquee is our newsletter focused on motion picture exhibition; keeping industry professionals informed of important news, the latest trends and insightful analysis

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