Even with Hollywood tentpole movies pushing the box office up 28% this year, somehow the subject of theatrical release windows has once again managed to find its way into both mainstream and industry news, though not in the way you might think.
Earlier this week Matt Belloni of Puck reported that Tom Cruise was upset about Christopher Nolan’s film “Oppenheimer” taking over IMAX screens on 21 July, just nine days after the release of his own film, “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1.” The seventh “Mission: Impossible” blockbuster reportedly cost USD $300 million and thanks to COVID delays has had its release date pushed back more than once. Nolan’s biopic of the physicist Robert Oppenheimer was dated way back in 2021 when production was announced.
Managing space on IMAX screens isn’t new problem. Studios regularly date their tentpole releases with Tetris-like precision in order to find a window in which they can run for a few weeks on IMAX. Now that blockbuster films are released day-and-date globally this can get quite tricky, with certain calendar slots booked out years in advance.
IMAX CEO Rich Gelfond said as much over lunch during the Cannes Film Festival last month. “We booked the dates, and we booked the window, over a year ago,” he confirmed of “Oppenheimer,” adding, “When you film with our cameras you get a longer window.” Nolan falls into this category having famously been an IMAX brand ambassador since his 2005 film, “Batman Begins.” He’s now used the company’s big screen technology for seven of his films including the upcoming “Oppenhiemer,” which was shot entirely on film with IMAX equipment.
There is some industry debate over whether 21 July is an appropriate release date for “Oppenheimer” given that “Mission: Impossible” will still be drawing audiences and Warner Bros. scheduled its comedy “Barbie” for the same date. According to recent tracking “Barbie” is over indexing with key demographics and there has been some mumbling that Warner Bros. dated the movie to compete with Nolan’s latest since the filmmaker left the studio for Universal Pictures back in 2021.
I’m not sure how much truth there is to that, though everyone currently working with Nolan has said there is no moving the director off his preferred and customary “third weekend of July” release date. Thus, Universal’s stance has been that they scheduled “Oppenheimer” on 21 July first so Warner Bros. can move off the date if they believe it’s too crowded. With all of this in mind, Cruise (and Paramount) have shifted their strategy to locking up as many private label PLF screens as possible for “Mission: Impossible.” IMAX accounts for just over 30% of the PLF screens in the US.
Once the three-week exclusive run of “Oppenheimer” ends Gelfond says, “We’ll bring ‘Mission’ back and because it’s IMAX people come back.” IMAX had to do this last summer for “Top Gun: Maverick” which earned USD $45 million in its first two weeks on the format before making way for “Jurassic World: Dominion.” In its fifth week of release IMAX brought the Cruise blockbuster back where it went on to make an additional USD $65 million topping out at USD $110 million. It is doubtful “Mission: Impossible” will find this level of success on IMAX a month after opening since this summer, unlike 2022, is stocked with at least 42 new releases.
Universal, for its part, was also likely thinking about both windows and “Oppenhiemer” when they spoke with the New York Times regarding the revenue the studio has made through its premium video-on-demand (PVOD) initiative. Universal didn’t mention the Nolan film outright, but it didn’t go unnoticed that the company was more than willing to provide PVOD figures a month before “Oppenheimer” opens for what is a contractually guaranteed 100-day exclusive theatrical run.
That lengthy theatrical window is far from the 30+ day average the studio’s blockbusters currently receive before being offered for rental on PVOD for as much as USD $25. Whether Universal was trying to bump the stock price of its parent company, Comcast, or send a message to creatives about money being left on the table with long theatrical windows is unclear, however the company told Brooks Barnes of the Times it has made over USD $1 billion since beginning to rely on PVOD three years ago.
Runaway hits such as “Super Mario Bros.” earned USD $75 million on PVOD. “Jurassic World: Dominion,” “The Croods: A New Age” and “Sing 2,” racked up USD $50 million. Fourteen films, including “M3gan,” banked over USD $25 million. Universal pointed to franchise films as an example of how the PVOD offering is not hurting their theatrical revenue and may, in fact, be improving it. Movies such as “Minions: The Rise of Gru” and “Jurassic World: Dominion” sold more tickets after their first 33-days upon becoming available on PVOD, then their predecessors.
Nor is PVOD cannibalizing Universal’s traditional video-on-demand revenue according to Donna Langley, the Chairwoman of the Universal Filmed Entertainment Group. All of this suggests that the studio has found a wholly new customer-base, at least that’s the “everybody is a winner” pitch Universal was making to the Times. Of course, Universal keeps 80% of PVOD revenue, a much higher percentage than it does for theatrical box office, so take that for what it’s worth.
One interesting point made by the Times was the comparison of PVOD revenue providing a “safety net” for smaller or less successful titles, just as DVDs had throughout the late 1990s and 2000s. Indie and more dramatic films often get a 17-day theatrical exclusive before hitting PVOD. Films such as “Belfast” and “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” collected USD $5 million on PVOD.
Maybe the most telling bits in the Times article came at the end when Peter Levinsohn, the Chief Distribution Officer of Universal Filmed Entertainment Group said the company has, “…taken back control of the decision of when to make our content available in the home, based on the most optimal timing for an individual film.”
Levinsohn didn’t say precisely who the control was taken back from, but as Brooks underscores in his piece, Universal’s biggest concern will be whether PVOD affects streaming revenue, not whether it is deleterious to theatrical box office.
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