With 2022 winding down, Gower Street Analytics, a leading film industry technology and market research firm, is looking ahead to 2023 to take its first stab at coming up with a global box office estimate for next year.

The company believes that 2023 box office will climb to USD $29 billion, a 12% gain over the current year if 2022 remains on course for an approximate $25.8 billion global box office. This year, the post-pandemic box office climbed at least 21% over 2021, but that’s not saying much since movie theatres around the world were closed for large chunks of last year due to local health regulations. That caused studios and indie distributors to hold most of their titles until 2022 or send them straight to streaming services.

If Gower Street’s projection holds it would suggest the industry will need to wait until at least 2024 to see a full return to pre-pandemic global box office levels. The company’s 2023 forecast is still 27% behind the average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019) at current foreign exchange rates. This timing is what several studio executives have outlined for us during recent CJ Cinema Summit sessions.