Category Archives: Analysis

Zut Alors! France Discovers Secret to Reversing Cinema Decline

France 4 Euro scheme

While the US grapple with a poor summer box office (BO) most of western Europe seems to have accepted that as a mature cinema market, its countries will see stasis or gradual stagnation only interrupted by the occasional outsize local hit (Italy last year, Ireland this summer). German epitomises this trend, with the recent study of cinema attendance 2009-2013 showing an overall slow decline.

But one European country has challenged the notion that secular decline in the cinema sector is a structural inevitability of changing demographics, technological and economical trends – and it appears to have reversed that decline. Not surprisingly, perhaps, the country in question is France.

France is the only country in the world to take cinema seriously enough to consider the declining cinema attendance a national emergency. Having launched several public initiatives to counter it, the good news is that early indications are that the decline can not just be halted but reversed.

Focus on the Next Generation of Cinema Goers

We have reported earlier on preliminary findings, but these have now been confirmed by the the Centre National du Cinéma (the National Cinema Centre - CNC) in a major report.

On 1 January 2014 French exhibitors introduced a scheme whereby children under the age of 14 would only pay four euro (€4 – USD $5.25) for cinema tickets for every screening of every film for every day. This was a joint public-private effort with the French government doing its part, as noted in an article published a month before the scheme was launched.

This operation, “launching in 2014 but which is intended to continue beyond”, is in the context of the government’s decision to lower on January 1st the VAT on cinema admissions of 7.5% to 5% said Marc-Olivier Sebbag, General Manager of the FNCF (National Federation of French Cinemas).

The VAT reduction desired by the government, is being voted on by MPs. The Minister of Culture Aurélie Filippetti welcomed the “democratization initiative taken by members of the FNCF.”

There was some opposition from distributors at the time – I can’t imagine Disney in particular being thrilled about this – but with buy-in from all cinemas, as well as the Ministry of Culture, there was no way that Hollywood studios would be permitted to obstruct this initiative.

French films 2014 6-14 year olds

The FNCF was clear that the goal was to reverse the declining attendance, though they were prepared to re-appraise the terms and methods, based on how it played out.

For the federation, the goal is, “in a context of declining attendance,” to encourage young people to come “more easily and more frequently to the movies” and build audiences for the future. “This is a population that goes to the movies as a family, we therefore address the more general family audience,” said Marc-Olivier Sebbag.

“We will take stock at the end of the first year and we will see whether it should be adjusted, for example by changing the age or price,” said he said.

With under-14 accounting for eight to nine percent (8%-9%) of total admissions, or 16 million out of 200 million, this was a significant step as average ticket prices for this age group was €5.50, compared to the average cinema ticket price in France of €6.42.

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Chinese Box Office Growth Driven by Women and Millennials

Tiny times 3

The China Film Association and other units launched the “2014 Chinese Film Art Report” and “2014 China Film Industry Report” earlier this week in Beijing.

The reports analyse cinema consumption patterns of domestic Chinese films and finds that they are primarily driven by females, Millennials and repeat viewing, with an astonishing per head spending of several hundred dollars per month at the multiplex. The reports also worries about the “shallow” themes of some of the most popular Chinese films.

With foreign (mainly Hollywood) films restricted in the Mainland market under the 20+14 quota, China’s cinema growth is taking place mainly on the back of domestic films. The government is keen to encourage this growth, which is why it is focusing research efforts on understanding cinema consumption patterns.

These two reports look at 2013 releases, which totalled 311 movies, of which 250 were domestic films(1) and 61 foreign films(2). Out of these 219 were categorized as genre films, such as comedy, romance, and action films, while 31 were categorized as “non-genre”.

It notes that out of 59 films that earned more than one billion yuan at the box office 32 were domestic, with domestic films accounting for 58% of overall takings, the highest number ever for Chinese cinemas.

‘A Great Leap Backward’

The report and articles about it seize upon the youth focus and themes of the most successful films.

It is noteworthy that the themes about the current urban population of the urban youth film themes of love and youth, grow up to become a dark horse, and rescue. The higher box office films “To Youth”, “Tiny Times”, “Chinese Partner,” “Break the Contract”, “That Was Stolen Five Years”, etc., all have a youthful theme. But the report notes that, while a good number of youth films, many of the movie lacks intrinsic emotional power and creative artistic qualities, and themes of these films focus on youth and substance, youth and love, youth and nostalgia, but lack a richer ambiguity.

The article goes on to lambast the “speculative mentality prevailing” in many youth films with the highest market share, saying “the youth theme of this bonanza is shallow excessive consumption.” The sentiment is perhaps understandable as even western media has latched onto what makes films such as “Tiny Times 3″ so popular.

YouTube Preview Image

Here is for example what the BBC had to say about it:

Tiny Times couldn’t be further from Mao’s ascetic communism: it is a wholesale celebration of conspicuous consumption and materialism that has been described as a cross between Sex and the City and The Devil Wears Prada.

The series follows four attractive, fashion-obsessed young women in Shanghai: Lily, Ruby, Lin and Nan Xiang. It chronicles their lives and romances. The actresses look perfect – nicely groomed and slim. There are constant references to sports cars and expensive brands such as Prada and Gucci. The characters are often in opulent surroundings as they enter into relationships with handsome, well-dressed men.

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German Cinema Screen Trends 2009-2013: Specialist Screens See Strong Growth

German cinema screens 2009-2013

The German Federal Film Board (FFA) has just published a detailed study (pdf) of cinema screen trends over the last five years, with some surprising findings. As a mature exhibition market, multiplex numbers are static, but there is significant growth of outdoor and specialist screens.

The number of multiplex screens in 2013 was exactly the same as in 2009: 1,294, though peaking at 1,301 in 2010. There were more than twice as many non-multiplex/traditional screens, though these declined from 2,870 in 2009 to 2,737 in 2013 in a trend that is likely to continue and contributed to decline of total screens, though at just -0.2% in the most recent year (equivalent to seven screens), less pronounced than past years.

Though the report does not mention it, it is important to remember that these were the key years for digital cinema implementation in Germany. However, the full digital death toll is likely to only come in the statistics for 2014 when the termination of 35mm print distribution is likely to see a significant drop in the numbers of ‘traditional screens’.

What is most interesting to note is the growth of specialised screens, which increased from 570 in 2009 to 586 in 2012, before settling at 579 for the last year of the report. These include Community/Culture centre cinemas (162), Associations (136) and University cinemas (126), with other types of cinemas as well, most of which did not screen film on anything more than a weekly basis.

Falling Overall Attendance

German cinema attendance

Despite two small year-on-year rises in the years covered by the report, overall cinema attendance in Germany is showing a slow but steady decline. Interestingly traditional screens have held their own against multiplex screens, having nearly half of the total market – 49.2% against 46.9% for the multiplex screens. Multiplex screens only outperformed traditional screens in 2010, which was also the year of lowest overall cinema attendance.

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China Cinema Future – Barrage 2: Return of the Tucao

Cinema barrage

We were quite overwhelmed by the response to last week’s article about how China is inventing the future of cinema with the concept of ‘barrage’. (Thank you for all the tweets, Facebook posts, emails, LinkedIn mentions and other shares.) So we have decided to do what Hollywood always does when it has an unexpected hit on its hands, which is to quickly rush out a sequel.

The cinema barrage concept also stirred a lot of interest in China (we’ve found no less than 353 articles). In the last piece we focused on the trial involving The Legend of Qin (a.k.a. Qin’s Moon). This time we look at the other film to have tried this concept in a slightly different format at the same time, Generation 90 blockbuster Tiny Times 3.0.

Putting it all on the screen

Unlike the Legend of Qin special ‘barrage’ screening you can see from the picture above that for Tiny Times 3.0 the barrage was overlaid on the main screen showing the films, rather than projected onto the walls on either side of the screen. This makes the tucaos harder to ignore, so it is obviously only something for those cinema goers who seek out this activity, rather than casual cinema goers.

Call it striking up a conversation with the auditorium or turning the cinema screen into a graffiti wall for people to sign temporary messages.

JRJ.com interviews Wang Jun, who was responsible for the Tiny Times 3.0 barrage trial.

Mr Wang was keen to point out that this was an early experiment and is not something that should be expected to be rolled out to every screen any time soon. But the first question was about the equipment and cost.

Wang says that “the barrage is not complicated. There are numerous equipment package available now that add up to about 100,000 yuan [USD $16,240].” He then goes on to elaborate:

First, the film technology currently requires a digital movie player is a secret key [KDM?]. Simultaneous subtitles during playback and video cannot be implemented under the current terms from the policy. This broadcast mainly relies on our software. Only a screening device hardware is not speculation that the two were a movie projector screen with a barrage content superimposed on each other.

The current software was designed for 200 simultaneous participants, which Wang admits is a problem when you have sold 250 tickets. Questioned about whether the wifi network can handle that many simultaneous streams, Wang points out that because these are only short messages there is actually relatively little data being handled.

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Quarterly Results: RealD (Good) and NCM (Not)

RealD logo

We are coming to the end of the current season of quarterly financial results, with RealD and National CineMedia, Inc announcing their respective Q1 2015 and Q2 2014 results. One is good and the other one not so good.

Starting with 3D technology licensing company RealD, the figures should please investors, with a 43% EBITDA year-on-year growth and net income of over USD 5 million. The press release gives the details:

Total revenue was $55.4 million, comprised of license revenue of $36.0 million and product and other revenue of $19.4 million. For the first quarter of fiscal 2014, total revenue was $59.2 million, comprised of license revenue of $37.3 million and product and other revenue of $21.9 million.

China license revenue represented 14% of total worldwide license revenue, up from 8% in the first fiscal quarter of 2014.

GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders was $5.5 million, or $0.10 per share, compared to GAAP net loss attributable to common stockholders of $1.5 million, or $0.03 per diluted share, for the first quarter of fiscal 2014.

The key metrics are interesting in terms of showing RealD weathering a slowdown in North America, both in terms of deployment and box office, with growth in emerging markets more than compensating and in some cases overtaking US/Canada numbers.

  • Estimated box office generated on RealD-enabled screens(1) for the first quarter of fiscal 2015 was $787 million ($387 million domestic, $400 million international). In the first quarter of fiscal 2014, estimated box office generated on RealD-enabled screens was $838 million ($431 million domestic, $407 million international).
  • Ten 3D films were released in the first quarter of fiscal 2015, compared to eight 3D films in the first quarter of fiscal 2014. These figures reflect the number of 3D films released domestically during the periods.
  • International markets generated 63% of license revenue and 34% of product and other revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2015.
  • As of June 30, 2014, RealD had deployed approximately 25,600 RealD-enabled screens, an increase of 9% from approximately 23,500 screens as of June 30, 2013, and an increase of 400 screens (50 domestic, 350 international), or 2%, from approximately 25,200 screens as of March 31, 2014.
  • As of June 30, 2014, RealD had approximately 13,450 domestic screens at approximately 3,000 domestic theater locations and approximately 12,150 international screens at approximately 3,000 international theater locations.

In the earnings call (transcript by Seeking Alpha, as always) CEO Michael V. Lewis pointed to a 20% cost reduction and significant growth in China, Russia and Latin America as keys to the company’s success in this quarter.

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China Just Invented the Future of Cinema Watching (But Everyone Older Than 30 Will Hate It)

The Legend of Qin - Qin's Moon

This week saw a cinema screening in China that may prove a watershed moment for how films are watched on the big screen. But chances are that unless you are a Millennial, particularly in Asia, you are not going to want to embrace it.

I’ve seen things…

Covering mainland China as a non-Mandarin speaker based in Singapore for me is a bit like watching an outdoor screening of Bladerunner from a neighbouring roof through a pair of binoculars; I can make out most of what is happening, pick up a lot of what is said, though I cannot pretend to understand everything that is going on. But to quote from the films memorable final monologue, “I’ve seen things you people wouldn’t believe.”

Because my perspective, disadvantaged though it may be, provides some fascinating insights into things happening in the Chinese exhibition industry, whether it is bizarre hammer attacks, concession food hygiene scares, Wanda IPO shenanigans or inherent structural market weaknesses - and that’s just in the last two weeks! And like Bladerunner this perspective offers a very real glimpse into the future – of cinema.

Because it is important to remember that the future of cinema does not lie in the west, which only offers stasis or a gentle decline of shrinking older audiences into wider, more comfortable and expensive seats, watching Avengers VII or a Met Opera. That is how THE END of cinema going as we know it plays out in cinema auditoriums everywhere from multiplexes in Manchester to art-houses in Atlanta, observed with gourmet popcorn and a glass of wine in our hand.

Whereas in China and Asia, cinema continue to grow and evolve as a social experience in the non-flickering digital projection light off the Imax/CFG screen. That is where we have to look to understand the future, particularly if we want to remain part of it.

China and Asia – the Cinema Innovators

We don’t need to rehash the already well-established importance of China to the global film and cinema business, whether it’s the gargantuan box office earning of Transformers 4 or the fact that it is the single most important growth market for Imax. What is important is not that China is now the second biggest cinema market in the world – though on uncertain foundations, as we’ve discussed many times before – but that it is a market that is continuing to expand.

This is equally true for the rest of the Far East and Southeast Asia, with the exception of Japan. The cinema business in South Asia is also growing, but with more restrictions, particularly in India where it is hampered by red tape and costly malls. (India also has a different and more traditionalist – not to say conservative – cinema going culture, that is in many way closer to that in the west than in China.)

So when we talk about China, it is often also a shorthand for talking about cinema developments in an arc across Asia that stretches from Seoul/Beijing/Tokyo, down through Singapore/Jakarta/Kuala Lumpur through to Chennai/Islamabad/Dubai.

It is in these markets that we are seeing the greatest innovations when it comes to cinemas. This comes from most of them being under-screened and unencumbered by legacy cinemas and multiplexes with their analogue heritage, as well as having a young population. It is easier to embrace the future if you can build it from scratch than if you have to retrofit it, particularly for audiences that don’t have a fixed concept of what ‘cinema’ should be. Asia is the only continent where the majority of cinemas that have never seen a 35mm print will soon outnumber those that at least once had a film projector. Asia *is* digital cinema.

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Can Filmmakers Really Help Kodak Craft A New Image?

Tired of Hearing Film Is Dead

The long standing uncertainty over the future of 35mm motion picture film was finally laid to rest this past week by the Eastman Kodak Co. causing the industry to heave a huge sigh of relief. That’s one way to look at the company’s announcement of an agreement with what the Wall Street Journal referred to as a “coalition of studios” for the guaranteed purchase of set quantities of film stock over the next several years. Another way to see the news is as a temporary stay of execution for the medium.

Whether the stay will turn into a permanent reprieve for film depends on many factors not the least of which are the length of the deal, the amount of film stock being manufactured and the continued creative preference of filmmakers. More importantly, it hinges on whether Kodak changes the strategy and approach of its historic motion picture business. If recent maneuvers are any indication, there may be some hope, however slim. Let me explain.

Mandatory Prerequisite Background
No story about the current state of the Eastman Kodak Co. or its future potential would be complete without reviewing the company’s last several years, specifically the time period leading up to and after January 19, 2012. That was the date the 124-year-old company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The adoption of digital imaging and photography both in the consumer and commercial markets devastated Kodak which wasn’t able to modify its business and product lines fast enough. The recent announcement about motion picture film stock finally gives us a little glimpse into the financial damage the company suffered during the transition to digital cinema.

According to Jeff Clarke, who took over as the CEO of Kodak this past March, the sale of motion picture film declined from 12.4 billion linear feet in 2006 to 449 million feet last year. You don’t need a degree from a fancy business school to know that a 96% decrease in revenue is a bad thing. The sale of film stock, once a profitable cash cow for the company, now accounts for under 10% of Kodak’s USD $2.2 billion annual revenue.

Since 2003 Kodak laid off 47,000 employees (and stand at around 8,500), closed 13 manufacturing plants along with 130 processing labs. The industry as a whole went from 260 motion picture laboratories capable of handling film in 2011 to 111 last year. As certain studios ceased the distribution of their releases on 35mm even giants such as Deluxe shuttered their film operations in the United Kingdom and United States, auctioning off their analog lab equipment.

This year Clarke reports Kodak will likely lose money manufacturing motion picture film and hopes to break even in 2015.

Examining The Past To Predict The Future
Much has been written over the past few years about how Kodak wound up in such dire straits despite having survived more than a century as one of the most widely recognized and dominant brands in the world. Most news stories focused on the company’s slow response to the transition toward digital photography. Though this may be true, Kodak may have avoided its financial difficulties if it had spent more time studying not only its own past, but also that of photographic technology which has never remained static for long.

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Cinema Audiences Getting Older, German Study Finds

FFA logo

The German Federal Film Board (FFA - Filmförderungsanstalt) has published its annual reports on cinema attendance and Top 75 films for Germany in 2013.

Noting successes for German titles last year, the two reports also record a significant decline in cinema attendance by young people but also a marked increase by older patrons. The findings are in line and emphasise trends in other developed markets, highlighting the needs to promote youth cinema attendance, while at the same time anchoring older audiences.

Demonstrating the customary German thoroughness and attention to detail, the reports were produced on the basis of the Media*Scope project from the Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung (GfK), whose film-related data FFA has exclusive use of, with the panel including no less than 25,000 participants and representatives of the German population over the age of 10.

The first report ‘Auswertung der Top 75-Filmtitel des Jahres 2013 nach soziodemografischen sowie kino- u. filmspezifischen Informationen’ (Evaluation of the Top 75 Movie Titles of 2013 by socio-demographic and cinema-and film-specific information)(PDF link) looks at the box office performance of German cinemas of the past year. While German box office as a whole declined from euro 1,033 million to euro 1,023 million (down one per cent) and attendance fell by 4% from 135.1 million to 129.7 million, as highlighted in the European Audiovisual Observatory 2013 annual report’s findings, the FFA report accentuates the positive by focusing on the success of German films.

Germany Top 75 Cinema attendance

Of the 75 most popular film of 2013 no less than 22 were German productions, which achieved an attendance record of 25.2 million tickets sold. This is more than twice as much as the 13 German productions that broke into the Top 75 in 2012 and only achieved attendance figures of 11.3 million ticket buyers. Local production “Fack Ju Göthe” is also the first German film since 2008′s “Keinohrhasen” to be the most successful film of the year, whether German or Hollywood. However, total attendance for both the Top 75 and all film were down on 2012. Even if they were up on the prior two years, the recent high-water mark is still 2009 (Avatar).

Germany cinema attendance age group

The report does an excellent job of breaking down cinema attendance for each Top 75 film by age (above), gender, income group, employment status, educational level, household size, day-of-the-week attendance, awareness of film’s genre and enough other categories to make even Nate Silver cry uncle!

It is the second report, however, that makes for more troubling reading: ‘Kinobesucher 2013 – Strukturen und Entwicklungen’ (‘Moviegoers 2013 – structures and trends’) (PDF link).

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Premium VoD Just Killed the Cinema Release Window

100,000 viewings DSK movie

One single tweet was the final nail in the coffin of the cinema exclusivity window, given added poignancy by being in French; “100 000 locations en une semaine, rien ne sera plus comme avant” (’100,000 viewings in a week, nothing will be as it was’).  This was the message from Vincent Maraval, Co-Founder of Wild Bunch, the French production and distribution outfit behind the controversial “Welcome to New York”, which was released on video-on-demand without first screening in French cinemas.

In a country (France) that counts cinema admissions rather than box office takings for a film (something that sets most of Continental Europe apart from Anglo-Saxon markets like the United States and United Kingdom), this tweet added insult to injury for what was truly a milestone for the industry in slaughtering its last sacred cow.

The day-and-date release of films in cinemas and on-line is nothing new, but we have now reached a point where the sacrosanctity of the exclusive theatrical window is well and truly dead for the vast majority of films. The recent Cannes Film Festival and the release of the report “Circulation of European Films in the Digital Era” (funded by the European Parliament and European Commission) has thrown this into sharp focus, yet there are many other factors to consider.

Fighting Day-and-Date for Years

“It’s the biggest threat to the viability of the cinema industry today,” is how John Fithian, president of the National Association of Theatre Owners (NATO), put it in 2006 in response to the day-and-date release of the Steven Soderbergh directed “Bubble”, which was released simultaneously on DVD, pay-per-view and in cinemas. Or rather, in a handful of cinemas. In Landmark Theatres alone, to be precise, the sister company of Magnolia Pictures, which produced and distributed the film, both owned by Mark Cuban.

Commenting on the experiment six years later, Steven Soderbergh opined:

On “Bubble” and “The Girlfriend Experience”, we really weren’t able to find out if the experiment worked because frankly, we were blackballed by all the chains. We couldn’t get any screens outside of Landmark, even though we offered to cut them in on some of the VOD and video revenue. They just blackballed us. Part of the point of going day-and-date is that somebody who lives in a place where that kind of movie wouldn’t typically open could watch it through VOD because they’ve read about it, because this whole thing of having to sell a movie multiple times is really f–king boring. We never got to find out if that worked or not because what does Landmark have, 75 screens or something? The movie was not allowed to be shown outside that group of theaters so I don’t know how day-and-date works.

Fithian was skilled in rallying his members to boycott the film, even though he knew that releasing a small independent film with no stars on DVD the same day as it plays in a few art-house screens was not the same existential threat as, say, releasing “Oceans 12″ (also directed by Soderbergh) on all platforms on the same day. But what it did represent was the thin end of the wedge, which is why Fithian was willing to risk coming up with a Jack Valenti-VCR-Boston-Strangler-type of quote.

Soderbergh Bubble

Bubble: “the biggest threat to the viability of the cinema industry today”

The key word in the Fithian quote is ‘today’ and where his greatest success lies was in killing off the discussion and experimentation for another half decade. Fithian is neither a technophobe nor is NATO blind to the direction in which the industry is heading. In response to Soderbergh’s interview, Fithian wrote, “Over the past two years NATO and our members have stated publicly that distributors should sit down privately with their exhibitor partners and their creative partners in dialogue about how the industry moves forward together.” But everything changed in early 2014.

The most serious threat wasn’t “Bubble” in 2006 but the MPAA-FCC exchange in 2009, known by the exhibitor-baiting headline, “MPAA Seeks FCC Okay For Transmission of First Run Movies Directly To Consumers”. While seemingly about day-and-date, we wrote at the time that “the MPAA may simply be hiding behind the concept of protecting content during shortened release windows as camouflage for their true motive; securing high definition digital content as it is distributed into the electronic ether of the home by controlling which devices can playback and display the content.”

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Is It Time To Go Short on AMC’s Shares?

AMC logo

It has been close to six months since the initial public offering (IPO) of AMC Entertainment, meaning that senior management will soon be allowed to start selling shares that they hold in the company. Seeking Alpha therefor asks if the time is right to go short on AMC.

The question of whether AMC managers and officers will start selling shares from 15th of June onwards is an interesting one, because it partly points towards the belief in the company and its future value by those closes to it that know it best, as well as to a larger extent about the prospects for the industry as a whole.

The article ‘AMC: June 15th Lockup Expiration From IPO Could Be A Preview To A Larger Short Play In December‘ summarizes the situation as follows:

  • AMC’s 180-day lockup period will come to an end on June 15th, freeing up 361,348 shares, held by the firm’s directors and officers.
  • An additional 77.8 million shares of AMC stock held by Wanda America will remain bound by lockup agreements until December 17, 2014.
  • While the larger short opportunity for AMC could be in December, the impending June lockup expiration could provide a small window for a short play as well.

While the article says that AMC shares have experienced ‘Unsteady Gains After Disappointing IPO’, the facts are that the shares were priced at USD $18 for the IPO on 17 December 2013. This many have been on the low end of expectations, but the shares have climbed to USD $23 in less than six months, peaking at $25.47 on 7 March.

While this may not be outperforming meteoric shares like Tesla, it is in line with the solid growth of the stock market as a whole this year.

More importantly, it should be remembered that the exhibition sector’s stock market performance was significantly better than the box office itself, as we noted in our February article ‘2013 – Bad Year for Film; Great Year for Exhibitor Share Price.’

Last year was also the first year that cinemas could not count on 3D films’ ticket price hike to boost admissions takings, but had to rely more on advertising, concessions, premium large format (notably Imax) and luxury dining and seating to improve the bottom line.

Seeking Alpha acknowledges that AMC has done a particularly good job of extracting more spending from cinema goers.

Solid First Quarter Results

AMC’s report for the quarter ended March 31 indicated a number of hopeful metrics for the venerable firm. Total revenues grew 7.8% on a year-over-year basis, and admissions revenues-considered amongst the most important metrics for movie theater chains-were up 6.8%. Food and beverage revenues also grew and impressive 8.2%.

AMC also benefits from the significant degree of consolidation in the US exhibition market that has seen the share of box office revenue taken by the four largest exhibitors increase from 35% in 2000 to 62% in 2012. This consolidation process is still underway and we are likely to see the Big Four cinema chains collect two out of every three dollars spent at the box office within the next two years.

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